Jonathan Brake is IBEC’s Director of Consulting Services and writes his own blog called the Forged Leader. They are all well worth reading. This one is from August 2026.
Larry W. Sharp, BAM Support Specialist, IBEC Ventures
Larry.Sharp@ibecventures.com
When the end goal of your 5-year plan disappears into the fog, you don’t park the business. You follow the trail markers.
I was standing on the beach in Cannon Beach, Oregon, looking out at Haystack Rock. It’s an absolute monolith – massive, iconic, and completely unmistakable.
Or at least, it usually is.
When we parked the car and started walking a quarter-mile up the sand, Haystack Rock was right there in front of us. Clear as day. But as we walked, a dense sea fog rolled in off the Pacific Ocean. Within minutes, this massive rock structure completely vanished into the mist.
We knew the beach layout. We had the coordinates. We knew where we were headed. But standing in front of it, we couldn’t see a single thing.
That brings us directly to today’s myth:
The Myth: If you can’t clearly see the endpoint of your strategy right now, you’re on the wrong trail – or you ought to stop moving altogether, or worse give up.
I am busting this right here on the coast.
3-Minute Summary: The 30-Second Briefing
- Visibility is temporary; the landmark is permanent. Just because your end goal is currently shrouded in fog doesn’t mean it ceased to exist.
- Stopping in the fog is a real risk. In hiking, and in business, freezing because visibility dropped leaves you stranded. Motion gives you feedback. But there must still be a trail.
- Strategy isn’t about perfect prediction; it’s about paying attention. A real strategy gives you trail markers to follow so you can pivot as the air clears.
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The Danger of Freezing on the Trail
Think about what happens when you’re out on a coastal hike and a heavy cloud rolls in. You know the trail is there and can see enough to keep walking.
If you just stop in your tracks, throw your hands up, and say, “Well, I can’t see the view anymore, so I guess I’ll wait,” you could put yourself in serious danger. Nobody knows where you are, you aren’t making progress, plus you’re at the mercy of the weather.
Yet, business leaders do this all the time with their strategic plans.
"We can't see what the market will look like in 3 years."
"The economic climate is too foggy right now."
"We're not sure if this product launch will hit the exact target."
So they stop. They freeze execution. They abandon the plan because the five-year view isn’t crystal clear today.
Here’s the reality: Your 5-year destination is almost never fully visible from where you’re currently standing. That doesn’t mean the destination isn’t there, it means you’ve got to rely on your trail markers until the mist lifts.
“Just because you can’t see the end result right now doesn’t mean you’re not on the right track.”
Strategy Isn’t Foresight: It’s Paying Attention
People often misunderstand what a strategic plan is supposed to do. They think a 12-month or 3-year plan is a magical crystal ball that guarantees every milestone will look identical to their draft presentation. I talk about this with my clients all the time.
It won’t!
Strategy isn’t about writing down a list of perfect predictions. Strategy is about paying attention to what you said you were going to do.
When you set a direction, your initial assumptions might be slightly off. That’s completely normal. But when you execute consistently and pay close attention to your progress, you gain the clarity required to make precise adjustments.
[ Execute Initial Steps ]
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▼
[ Pay Close Attention ] ──► (Is visibility clearing?)
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[ Pivot & Keep Moving ]
If you are on a trail, when you stay in motion, you give the mist time to clear.
As I have been here thinking through this analogy, the sea fog off the coast has already started lifting. The rock is coming back into view, and it’s far bigger than I imagined when looking at photos.
In fact, within 20 minutes, the fog was completely gone.
What to Do When You’re Caught in the Fog
If your team or business is feeling stuck in a patch of low visibility right now, don’t throw away the roadmap. Take these three steps instead:
- Re-anchor to Your Known Coordinates: Go back to your core objectives. What did you set out to achieve this quarter / this season? Trust the directions you set when visibility was high.
- Focus on the Next Trail Marker: You don’t need to see the entire mountain to take the next three steps. Focus on immediate execution.
- Pivot, Don’t Stop: Adjust your pacing or micro-tactics as conditions demand, but keep moving along the path.
The fog is just weather. It passes. Your strategy is what keeps you moving until it does.
Over to You
Are you currently holding back on a strategic decision because you can’t see the end result clearly? What’s one trail marker you can focus on this week to keep moving forward?